"Winners of war" Who benefits from war?

At first glance, wars are not good or desirable for anyone. But at second glance, they are. Keywords such as "arms industry", "power" and "oil" may come to mind for some. They are related to the economy. This article examines who profits from war, who loses, and sheds light on the often overlooked entanglement of economics and war.

While most wars are portrayed as serving to defend or protect populations, they actually serve to redistribute power and property: to increase power and property, to defend power and property. In the end, there are always winners and losers: people who gain power and property, and many more people who lose power and property. But although wars are often fought between states, between armies made up of populations, in the end it is not one population that emerges as the winner and another as the loser. The winners are primarily shareholders in arms companies and industries. States as political entities can also benefit directly or indirectly from war. Internationally, the states of the Global North are the winners in the competition between states, and this also applies to armed conflicts. The losers are always the populations of both warring parties. Not only do they finance the war to a large extent with their taxes, they are also the ones who have to bear its destructive consequences – be it destroyed homes and houses, destroyed infrastructure and livelihoods, or injured and killed people.

War economy or economic war?

The former describes a form of economy, the latter a form of war. In Europe, politicians are calling for a switch to a war economy. But what exactly is that? It is a form of economy that is capable of preparing for and waging war. War is expensive: weapons must be developed and produced, the military must be trained and paid, and infrastructure must be built. This can be financed in various ways: through taxes, through war bonds issued to the population, through the printing of new banknotes, or through loans. In the end, it is always the population that bears the costs. An economic war is a form of war in which economic policy measures are used instead of weapons. It is a competition with the aim of reducing the economic power of another state. Tools used here include customs duties, taxes, sanctions and embargoes.

Main Profits

Arms manufacturing is a very lucrative business. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the share prices of arms manufacturers have risen by more than 800 per cent in some cases. This makes investors in the arms industry the winners of war.

Lobbying? War economy!

Arms are a very lucrative business. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the share prices of arms companies have risen by more than 800 per cent in some cases. This makes investors in the arms industry the winners of war. If it is the shareholders of arms companies who ultimately profit most from war, but states that wage war, where does the state's interest in waging war come from? The reasons for this are complex, but one of the factors is the hard work that arms industry corporations do to persuade politicians. They talk about threats and security gaps that make investment in new weapons systems seem indispensable. Lobbyists or interest groups often even appoint politicians to their boards and executive committees, where they sit alongside industry representatives and former military personnel. Since 2014, hundreds of meetings have taken place between the European Commission and the largest EU arms companies. Unlike NGOs or researchers, arms companies are also invited to hearings in parliament and even have access passes to parliament. In 2025, the most traded share in Germany was that of the arms company Rheinmetall.

Philip Steeg has provided a detailed breakdown of the German arms lobby landscape in his article "System of Systems – How the arms industry's lobbying works at different levels and interacts". Here we have summarised the main players and how they operate.

What is a lobby?

A lobby is an interest group that wants to exert political influence, while a political lobby is an association of individuals or organisations (e.g. companies, associations) that attempt to influence laws and decisions through discussions and contacts.

War and Racism

Violent conflicts are also often characterised by racism. This leads to white people being perceived as more valuable than others and receiving more empathy and attention in the event of death or injury than non-white people. This also results in greater resistance among the population when these people are treated unjustly. This was evident, for example, in the refugee movement from Ukraine, where BIPoC were sometimes turned away at the EU border. Racism can thus lead to greater acceptance among the population for acts of war against BIPoC. This is evident, for example, in the armed conflicts being fought in the Global South, whose victims are mainly BIPoC people.

Governments need this acceptance in order not to lose the support of the population for waging war. This can be seen, for example, in anti-Muslim racism. This provided an important justification for the US "War on Terror" in Iraq and Afghanistan. A more recent example is the assessment of Israel's war crimes in the Gaza Strip and the accompanying acceptance of Germany's arms deliveries to Israel.

The armed conflicts waged by major powers in the Global South also mean that the states of the Global North suffer fewer casualties overall, even though they are often involved in conflicts and thus pursue their own interests. As a result, part of the redistribution of power, domination and wealth through wars also takes place along the axis of racism.

Geopolitical interests

Economic interests go hand in hand with geopolitical interests. For example, the aim of an act of war may be to depose a foreign government, perhaps because of fears that this government could implement policies that run counter to the economic interests of another state or international corporations. If, for example, a government wants to expropriate large landowners who are international corporations in order to combat inequality in its own country, this can mean a loss of cheap resources for the trading partners of these international corporations or the countries where they are based. This was the case in Guatemala in 1954, when the US staged a coup to replace the incumbent left-wing president with a US-friendly president, on the grounds of protecting the country from "socialism". The incumbent president wanted to expropriate large landowners and distribute unused land to the country's farmers. The main winner of this military intervention was the US company United Fruit Company, later Chiquita, which would have been exposed to large-scale expropriation without the coup. The Guatemalan people were thus the losers of the intervention, while the US was able to secure not only economic gains but also geopolitical power and influence. The exact causes of wars are usually not openly stated by the parties involved, but rather the version that is considered most justifiable to the outside world is often cited. However, if one looks closely, clear economic interests can still be identified in many wars.

Social inequality & "war losers"

Wars always have to do with social inequality, and this on several levels.

Outlook

The European and global economy is increasingly becoming a war economy. This goes hand in hand with a general militarisation of society. Wars destroy human lives and the environment and are not approved by anyone. And yet there are "war winners". The arms industry, which makes profits through lobbying and warmongering, or other industries that gain access to raw materials and cheap labour through wars. Countries in the Global North, where these industries are mostly located, emerge as "winners" over the Global South.

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